Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s famous advice to Vladimir Putin – “this is not an era of war” – holds the key to India’s strategic response to the Pahalgam terror attack, analysts suggest. Rather than opting for direct military confrontation with Pakistan, New Delhi possesses multiple effective tools to punish cross-border terrorism without triggering full-scale war.
Recent statements by PM Modi about punishing terrorists and their backers are being misinterpreted as war signals, experts argue. His April 24 declaration from Bihar about pursuing perpetrators “to the ends of the Earth” refers to comprehensive counter-terrorism measures, not necessarily battlefield action. This aligns with his consistent position that solutions to complex problems aren’t found through warfare.
Pakistan’s leadership appears to be amplifying war fears deliberately. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif’s April 28 claim of “imminent” Indian military action and Information Minister Attaullah Tarar’s specific 36-hour strike warning failed to materialize, exposing these as psychological operations to divert attention from Pakistan’s alleged terror links.
India has already initiated significant non-military responses. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty strikes at Pakistan’s agricultural and economic stability. Downsizing diplomatic missions targets Pakistan’s intelligence networks operating under diplomatic cover. Experts suggest further measures could include complete severance of diplomatic ties to dismantle ISI’s spy infrastructure in India.
Strategic analysts propose more assertive covert options. Supporting Pakistan’s internal insurgent groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch liberation movements could pressure Islamabad without direct Indian military involvement. The TTP already receives Afghan support for cross-border operations, while Baloch insurgents target China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects – both aligning with Indian security interests.
Economic measures remain potent weapons. India’s recent ban on Pakistani goods and port access demonstrates how economic isolation can hurt Pakistan’s struggling economy. Expanding these sanctions through international lobbying could compound the pressure.
The military retains “operational freedom” for targeted counter-terror operations rather than all-out war. This could mean cross-border surgical strikes against terror camps or intensified operations against sleeper cells in Jammu and Kashmir. The May 1 revamp of India’s National Security Advisory Board suggests a comprehensive review of security strategies.
Modi’s statesmanship faces its sternest test in balancing domestic demands for strong action against the risks of nuclear escalation. His government appears to be crafting a multi-layered response combining diplomatic isolation, economic pressure, covert action and military readiness without crossing into declared warfare.
As Pakistan nervously anticipates Indian retaliation, New Delhi’s strategic patience and non-military pressure tactics may prove more effective than dramatic military strikes in achieving long-term counter-terrorism objectives while avoiding catastrophic escalation in the nuclear-armed neighborhood.
Disclaimer: Views expressed represent strategic analysis and don’t reflect official government policy. Some suggestions may involve sensitive geopolitical considerations.
Source: firstpost